Received 16.04.2025, Revised 25.09.2025, Accepted 13.11.2025
Increased migration flows, changes in birth rates, and the growing importance of the border factor in southern Kyrgyzstan necessitate an in-depth study of the region’s ethnodemographic processes. This was particularly important in the context of socio-economic transformations and the growing influence of external factors. The aim of the study was to analyse changes in the population size and ethnic composition of the southern region of Kyrgyzstan in 1989-2022, identify their key determinants and provide an ethnodemographic assessment of the current situation. The methods included analysis of data from the 1999, 2009 and 2022 censuses, official statistics, materials from the 2019 ethnosociological survey. Ethnographic, demographic, statistical, comparative-observational and geographical approaches were used. The results showed that in 2022, the population of Kyrgyzstan reached 6,936,156 people, with the southern region accounting for about 52.5%. Population growth in the southern regions (83.2%) exceeded the national average (62.9%) between 1989 and 2022. The share of Kyrgyz increased to 77.6%, Uzbeks to 14.2%, while the number of Russians decreased to 4.1% and a number of other ethnic groups decreased tenfold. The largest increase was recorded in the Osh region (+105.3%), and the smallest in the city of Osh (+58.9%). Ethno-sociological data reflect a high orientation towards large families (≈81%), an increase in the age of marriage by 5-6 years, high unemployment (up to 80% of the working-age population) and the presence of latent inter-ethnic tensions in border areas. The practical significance of the study lies in the use of the data obtained to adjust demographic and migration policies, employment programmes and the prevention of interethnic conflicts in the southern regions of Kyrgyzstan
demography; ethnicity; natural growth; migration; socio-economic situation; discrimination; “hidden” situation